Duluth, MN (NNCNOW.com) --- It's early November, time to start thinking about the winter season and what it could be like!
There are many factors that come into play when trying to predict months in advance.
One of the first things we look for is El Nino or La Nina, which refers to sea surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean.
These have been neutral for about a year, so they're not offering a glimpse into our winter season. So we're not getting much help from them!
The Climate Prediction Center has issued its forecast for the next three months...November through January. They say the temperature will be average to above average, especially in Wisconsin. They also say precipitation should be close to average for the next three months.
I like to use the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation for guidance in my month ahead forecast. So far the North Atlantic Oscillation is just a little above average, which usually places the Jetstream a little more to the north. But since it's not to terribly positive we won't see much of a dramatic change in temperature from average.
The next thing we use is the Arctic Oscillation which has strongly gone positive. This makes the Jetstream amplified allowing for arctic air to filter down to the mid latitude levels. It will also allow for warmer periods as well. This usually creates more uplift which brings more precipitation.
With all of this in mind, here's what I'm thinking for this winter and it involves a lot more snow than usual. We will see average temperatures and above average precipitation. Usually Duluth averages around 86" of snow, I think we'll see near 100" this year.
What methods do you use to predict how a winter will turn out? Post your thoughts on my Facebook Page “Adam Clark NNC” and tell me what you use, especially in nature, to figure out what Old Man Winter might do! I’ve put a link below to my Facebook page.