Economists say holiday shopping will likely be down this year, and the Northland looks no different.

A recent credit.com survey shows consumers agree- more than half of those surveyed don't expect the holiday shopping season to look like it normally does.

U.M.D. Economics professor David Doorn says retailers should brace for the worst.

The U.S. commerce Department recently reported October retail sales were down 2.8 percent

That's the highest one- month decline in history.

"The retailers are quite worried about this Christmas season because for most retailers, the Christmas season makes up fifty percent or more of their annual sales," said Doorn.

According to the National Retail Federation, consumers plan on spending just over $830 on holiday related shopping.

That's only 1.9 percent higher than last year, which is the lowest increase in consumer planned spending since 2002.

"We're pretty much definitely in a recession at this point. Although the hard data doesn't confirm that we've had, so far, one quarter of declining GDP, unemployment's picking up pretty dramatically," said Doorn.

Many retailers aren't hiring as many extra employees as they normally do.

Doorn says this projected slump will cause most retailers to offer better deals and deeper discounts than years past.

With a slow economy, many shoppers are turning away from high- end retailers and that may be good news for places like Target...but stores across the board are bracing for a slump.

"I think you'll see a lot of deals throughout the fourth quarter especially through our soft lines in our toy dept and electronics," said Target store Manager Rich Dean.

Dean also says despite some projections, he's seeing high toy sales right now.

He says that usually doesn't happen until after Thanksgiving.

In many households, adults aren't exchanging gifts, but are focusing on the kids instead, so that could be why toy sales are increasing already.

In a recent survey, 84- percent of respondents said their favorite present last year wasn't even something from their wish list.

Rather an experience with relatives or something someone made for them.